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IT Strategy and Emerging Technology

Blog with thoughts, links and articles on Emerging Web Technologies, and emerging uses for these technologies

Gartner: By 2012, 20 percent of businesses will own no IT assets

Fergal Coleman - Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Gartner's 2010 and beyond predictions have been released with some interesting insights available at:

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413

The key predictions are as follows:
  1. By 2012, 20 percent of businesses will own no IT assets.
  2. By 2012, India-centric IT services companies will represent 20 percent of the leading cloud aggregators in the market (through cloud service offerings
  3. By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social network integration and Web socialization
  4. By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs.
  5. In 2012, 60 percent of a new PC's total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns the machine on
  6. Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.
  7. By 2014, over 3 billion of the world's adult population will be able to transact electronically via mobile or Internet technology.
  8. By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web.
  9. By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide.

Top 10 Strategic Technologies For 2010

Fergal Coleman - Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Gartner released their predictions on top 10 strategic technologies 2010 in late October.
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1210613

Unsurprisingly Cloud Computing and Predictive Analytics top the list. CIO's should be factoring these technologies and some of the other on the list into their strategic plans for 2010.

Below is an excerpt from the list:

"Gartner defines a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. Factors that denote significant impact include a high potential for disruption to IT or the business, the need for a major dollar investment, or the risk of being late to adopt.

These technologies impact the organization's long-term plans, programs and initiatives. They may be strategic because they have matured to broad market use or because they enable strategic advantage from early adoption.

“Companies should factor the top 10 technologies into their strategic planning process by asking key questions and making deliberate decisions about them during the next two years,” said David Cearley, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “However, this does not necessarily mean adoption and investment in all of the technologies. They should determine which technologies will help and transform their individual business initiatives.”

The top 10 strategic technologies for 2010 include:

Cloud Computing. Cloud computing is a style of computing that characterizes a model in which providers deliver a variety of IT-enabled capabilities to consumers. Cloud-based services can be exploited in a variety of ways to develop an application or a solution. Using cloud resources does not eliminate the costs of IT solutions, but does re-arrange some and reduce others. In addition, consuming cloud services enterprises will increasingly act as cloud providers and deliver application, information or business process services to customers and business partners.

Advanced Analytics. Optimization and simulation is using analytical tools and models to maximize business process and decision effectiveness by examining alternative outcomes and scenarios, before, during and after process implementation and execution. This can be viewed as a third step in supporting operational business decisions. Fixed rules and prepared policies gave way to more informed decisions powered by the right information delivered at the right time, whether through customer relationship management (CRM) or enterprise resource planning (ERP) or other applications. The new step is to provide simulation, prediction, optimization and other analytics, not simply information, to empower even more decision flexibility at the time and place of every business process action. The new step looks into the future, predicting what can or will happen.

Client Computing. Virtualization is bringing new ways of packaging client computing applications and capabilities. As a result, the choice of a particular PC hardware platform, and eventually the OS platform, becomes less critical. Enterprises should proactively build a five to eight year strategic client computing roadmap outlining an approach to device standards, ownership and support; operating system and application selection, deployment and update; and management and security plans to manage diversity.

IT for Green. IT can enable many green initiatives. The use of IT, particularly among the white collar staff, can greatly enhance an enterprise’s green credentials. Common green initiatives include the use of e-documents, reducing travel and teleworking. IT can also provide the analytic tools that others in the enterprise may use to reduce energy consumption in the transportation of goods or other carbon management activities.

Reshaping the Data Center. In the past, design principles for data centers were simple: Figure out what you have, estimate growth for 15 to 20 years, then build to suit. Newly-built data centers often opened with huge areas of white floor space, fully powered and backed by a uninterruptible power supply (UPS), water-and air-cooled and mostly empty. However, costs are actually lower if enterprises adopt a pod-based approach to data center construction and expansion. If 9,000 square feet is expected to be needed during the life of a data center, then design the site to support it, but only build what’s needed for five to seven years. Cutting operating expenses, which are a nontrivial part of the overall IT spend for most clients, frees up money to apply to other projects or investments either in IT or in the business itself.

Social Computing. Workers do not want two distinct environments to support their work – one for their own work products (whether personal or group) and another for accessing “external” information. Enterprises must focus both on use of social software and social media in the enterprise and participation and integration with externally facing enterprise-sponsored and public communities. Do not ignore the role of the social profile to bring communities together.

Security – Activity Monitoring. Traditionally, security has focused on putting up a perimeter fence to keep others out, but it has evolved to monitoring activities and identifying patterns that would have been missed before. Information security professionals face the challenge of detecting malicious activity in a constant stream of discrete events that are usually associated with an authorized user and are generated from multiple network, system and application sources. At the same time, security departments are facing increasing demands for ever-greater log analysis and reporting to support audit requirements. A variety of complimentary (and sometimes overlapping) monitoring and analysis tools help enterprises better detect and investigate suspicious activity – often with real-time alerting or transaction intervention. By understanding the strengths and weaknesses of these tools, enterprises can better understand how to use them to defend the enterprise and meet audit requirements.

Flash Memory. Flash memory is not new, but it is moving up to a new tier in the storage echelon. Flash memory is a semiconductor memory device, familiar from its use in USB memory sticks and digital camera cards. It is much faster than rotating disk, but considerably more expensive, however this differential is shrinking. At the rate of price declines, the technology will enjoy more than a 100 percent compound annual growth rate during the new few years and become strategic in many IT areas including consumer devices, entertainment equipment and other embedded IT systems. In addition, it offers a new layer of the storage hierarchy in servers and client computers that has key advantages including space, heat, performance and ruggedness.

Virtualization for Availability. Virtualization has been on the list of top strategic technologies in previous years. It is on the list this year because Gartner emphases new elements such as live migration for availability that have longer term implications. Live migration is the movement of a running virtual machine (VM), while its operating system and other software continue to execute as if they remained on the original physical server. This takes place by replicating the state of physical memory between the source and destination VMs, then, at some instant in time, one instruction finishes execution on the source machine and the next instruction begins on the destination machine.

However, if replication of memory continues indefinitely, but execution of instructions remains on the source VM, and then the source VM fails the next instruction would now place on the destination machine. If the destination VM were to fail, just pick a new destination to start the indefinite migration, thus making very high availability possible. 

The key value proposition is to displace a variety of separate mechanisms with a single “dial” that can be set to any level of availability from baseline to fault tolerance, all using a common mechanism and permitting the settings to be changed rapidly as needed. Expensive high-reliability hardware, with fail-over cluster software and perhaps even fault-tolerant hardware could be dispensed with, but still meet availability needs. This is key to cutting costs, lowering complexity, as well as increasing agility as needs shift.

Mobile Applications. By year-end 2010, 1.2 billion people will carry handsets capable of rich, mobile commerce providing a rich environment for the convergence of mobility and the Web. There are already many thousands of applications for platforms such as the Apple iPhone, in spite of the limited market and need for unique coding. It may take a newer version that is designed to flexibly operate on both full PC and miniature systems, but if the operating system interface and processor architecture were identical, that enabling factor would create a huge turn upwards in mobile application availability.

“This list should be used as a starting point and companies should adjust their list based on their industry, unique business needs and technology adoption mode,” said Carl Claunch, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “When determining what may be right for each company, the decision may not have anything to do with a particular technology. In other cases, it will be to continue investing in the technology at the current rate. In still other cases, the decision may be to test/pilot or more aggressively adopt/deploy the technology.”

Sixth Sense: The Future of Mobile Technology

Fergal Coleman - Friday, June 19, 2009
The Sixth Sense

Pattie Maes of MIT showcases a prototype wearable device with a projector that paves the way for profound interaction with our environment. Imagine "Minority Report" and then some.

Business Technology Diagnostic

Fergal Coleman - Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Bua Consulting has just launched its Business Technology Diagnostic.

The diagnostic is a simple free questionnaire on IT use in your business that can be completed in 5 - 10 minutes. Once completed it will provide a simple report outlining areas where you can make better use of IT in your business.

See how your business performs by trying it today.

http://www.bua-tools.com/technology_diagnostic/index.php



Great web 2.0 resource go2web20.net/

Fergal Coleman - Tuesday, December 16, 2008
http://www.go2web20.net/

Go2web20.net is a great resource. It is a site that assembled hundreds of web 2.0 companies in one place. If you are looking for a new technology that can assist in your business or personal life this is as good a place as any to start 

Web 2.0: A definition

Fergal Coleman - Saturday, November 22, 2008

http://radar.oreilly.com/archives/2006/12/web-20-compact-definition-tryi.html

Web 2.0 Compact Definition: Trying Again

A commenter on one of my previous posts about Web 2.0 wrote:

Why is everyone referencing O’Reilly regarding the correct definition of Web 2.0. I never could get my head around this. I personally think that his definition of Web 2.0, isn't actually definition. He basically came up with some analogies which people later used to define what ‘they’ thought Web 2.0 was. If O’Reilly actually defined it, would there be so much debate?

I replied, and thought that my reply might be worth publishing more widely than just in the comments. So here is a new attempt at a brief definition:

Web 2.0 is the business revolution in the computer industry caused by the move to the internet as platform, and an attempt to understand the rules for success on that new platform. Chief among those rules is this: Build applications that harness network effects to get better the more people use them. (This is what I've elsewhere called "harnessing collective intelligence.")

(Eric Schmidt has an even briefer formulation of this rule: "Don't fight the internet." That's actually a wonderful way to think about it. Think deeply about the way the internet works, and build systems and applications that use it more richly, freed from the constraints of PC-era thinking, and you're well on your way. Ironically, Tim Berners-Lee's original Web 1.0 is one of the most "Web 2.0" systems out there -- it completely harnesses the power of user contribution, collective intelligence, and network effects. It was Web 1.5, the dotcom bubble, in which people tried to make the web into something else, that fought the internet, and lost.)

Other rules (which mostly fall out of this one) include:

  1. Don't treat software as an artifact, but as a process of engagement with your users. ("The perpetual beta")

     

  2. Open your data and services for re-use by others, and re-use the data and services of others whenever possible. ("Small pieces loosely joined")

     

     

  3. Don't think of applications that reside on either client or server, but build applications that reside in the space between devices. ("Software above the level of a single device")

     

     

  4. Remember that in a network environment, open APIs and standard protocols win, but this doesn't mean that the idea of competitive advantage goes away. (Clayton Christensen: "The law of conservation of attractive profits")

     

     

  5. Chief among the future sources of lock in and competitive advantage will be data, whether through increasing returns from user-generated data (eBay, Amazon reviews, audioscrobbler info in last.fm, email/IM/phone traffic data as soon as someone who owns a lot of that data figures out that's how to use it to enable social networking apps, GPS and other location data), through owning a namespace (Gracenote/CDDB, Network Solutions), or through proprietary file formats (Microsoft Office, iTunes). ("Data is the Intel Inside")

 

(I'll note that the process of getting advantage from data isn't necessary a case of companies being "evil." It's a natural outcome of network effects applied to user contribution. Being first or best, you will attract the most users, and if your application truly harnesses network effects to get better the more people use it, you will eventually build barriers to entry based purely on the difficulty of building another such database from the ground up when there's already so much value somewhere else. (This is why no one has yet succeeded in displacing eBay. Once someone is at critical mass, it's really hard to get people to try something else, even if the software is better.) The question of "don't be evil" will come up when it's clear that someone who has amassed this kind of market position has to decide what to do with it, and whether or not they stay open at that point.)

"Defining" a business model transition is always hard. We had a "personal computer" era long before the business rules were clear. A deeper understanding of the new rules of business in the PC era, and a ruthless application of them before anyone else understood them as well, is what made Microsoft the king of the hill in that era.

A lot of what I'm trying to do with my thinking on Web 2.0 is to make the rules apparent to everyone, so that the industry isn't blindsided. Perhaps a hopeless effort, but I've gotten some traction...


McKinsey releases Web 2.0 survey report

Fergal Coleman - Friday, August 01, 2008

McKinsey have released their 2008 Web 2.0 report which will be of interest to businesses wishing to embrace and get benefits from web 2.0 workplace technologies.

McKinsey Report McKinsey Report (623 KB)

 

 

Virtual Meetings

Fergal Coleman - Wednesday, July 30, 2008
At the Mindshop conference in May 2008 I mentioned in my seminar that the world of virtual online lives as represented by Second Life may be beginning to climb the slope of enlightenment as per the Gartner Emerging technology model. See http://www.buaconsulting.com/emerging-tech

I believe this is being borne out with the emergence of browser based virtual reality solutions. This allows people to build virtual environments on their own websites and I believe this could lead to these solutions becoming more mainstream. Solutions are currently available through among others, www.vivaty.com and Google has an offering called Lively.

Bua Consulting has a virtual seminar room which we are currently testing - it is built on the Google Lively product which is currently in Beta testing - depending on ongong reliability we are looking at running some virtual seminars and networking evenings  in the coming months. If you are interested in attending please let us know - we are currently compiling a list of prospective attendees

Emerging Web Technologies

Fergal Coleman - Monday, June 02, 2008
Blog on the conference.

Just back from the Mindshop conference in Sydney and a presentation on emerging technologies. As such I thought I'd talk about emerging technology using an emerging (well emerged at this stage) technology.

Key point for business is that some of these emerging technologies are very easy to use - however dedication is needed in matching them to your business goals and perservering with them until a Network effect is developed.

More at www.buaconsulting.com/emerging-tech

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